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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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