Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
